I'm going to rehash this problem. I
always (and I mean
always) have a difficult time with this problem. This is one of those that I saw at the beginning of my prep and I return to it every month or two just to see if anything has changed. Usually I end up in the same place - completely confused. However, today I was able to solve it much easier because I have simply been working on understanding how important the actual question/start of an incorrect answer choice is. What I mean is that I have been trying to focus on what "ignores the possibility" or "takes for granted" really means. I think that led me down the right path today and I wanted to do a write-up; maybe it will help someone else!
Key:
"Supports the new tax plan" = STP
"No chance at being elected" = ~E
"Truly understands economics" = UE
The Core: (E→~STP)
+
(UE→~STP)
→
E → UE
Let's think about this. Can we chain up any conditionals? No, it doesn't seem so.
However, let's just think about this question in the abstract. Isn't it a REALLY strong conclusion, to say that ONLY those who are (UE) have a chance at being elected, (E)? Couldn't other people get elected? This is the approach I went with.
What do we know about (E)? We know that (E) → ~(STP). Thus, we know that whoever has a chance at being elected, (E),
must be ~(STP). We know that (UE) is sufficient for us to get there. But what about ~(UE)? We know nothing about ~(UE) when it is the sufficient condition. Couldn't it be that people are ~(UE) can also get elected? We have no reason not to believe so!
That is why (D) is correct.