Q13 - A computer game publisher

[ohthatpatrick]

Question Type:
Strengthen (which answer most justifies the prediction)

Stimulus Breakdown:
Conclusion: Sales of the game will exceed expectations.
Evidence: Although the rate of sales is currently only meeting expectations, the rate of RENTALS is exceeding expectations and there's a rebate that incentivizes people to apply their rental cost to an actual purchase (sale) of the game.

Answer Anticipation:
The prediction hinges on whether people are likely to take advantage of this rental rebate. When would they be likely to go for it? When wouldn't they be?

Presumably, if they like the game a lot during the rental phase and think, "man, I'd really like to own this game", then they'll apply the rental rebate and buy the game.

But if people during the rental phase AREN'T thinking, "Man, I'd really like to own this game", then the rental rebate doesn't really offer any compelling reason to buy the game.

The author HAS given us reason to think that people will be liking the game during the rental phase: "it's inventive puzzles and compelling plot induce even causal players to be obsessed with finishing it". Hmm, maybe they feel like they could just rent it one more time in order to finish it, and that would be cheaper than buying it?

Correct Answer:
B

Answer Choice Analysis:
(A) Irrelevant. We really only care about the thought process of someone who has just completed the rental phase and is considering buying the game.

(B) YES! This counters the objection of "Why don't they just rent it one more time, in order to finish the game but still save money." Apparently, you'd have to rent it at least 10 times to finish it (for most players). So that makes it seem like people at the end of the rental phase will be hooked and will realize that they're only 10% done with the game, so it's probably worth buying the game.

(C) This is too broad. Just because this publisher makes successful games doesn't give us anything specific enough about the mentality of someone who just finished a 2-day rental and is considering buying. We already know the game is inventive and compelling, so we don't need to be persuaded that it has some appeal.

(D) Weakens. This makes one more likely to say, "I'm not gonna buy it. Once I've solved it, it won't have any future value."

(E) The quantity of "some" is almost always wrong on Strengthen/Weaken. This is telling us that AT LEAST ONE person bought the game and gave it to a friend. We can't infer any trend or implication from just one data point. Also, there's not even info about whether this person bought the game outright or bought it after renting. AND, it would really serve to weaken the argument, since buying a copy and then giving it to a friend is something that overall would UNDERMINE sales of the game.

Takeaway/Pattern: This is the type of correct answer on Strengthen that is really "Ruling Out a Possible Objection". Make sure you still use a Weaken/Debating mindset when you evaluate an argument on Strengthen. By thinking of the objection, "What if people have already BEAT the game by the end of the rental phase?", we can better understand how (B) is helping the author's case.

#officialexplanation

[sumukh09]

This is a strengthen the argument question where we have to justify the prediction made by the publisher. His prediction is that the sales of his game will exceed expectations - this is also the conclusion of the argument.

In this question it pays to pay close attention to the background info (and there's a lot of it) that precedes the core of the argument. Basically, the game is addicting in that even casual players are tempted to complete the game once they begin it. You can rent the game for two days or buy it directly from retail outlets. This information should be sufficient to equip us with answering the question effectively. Now on to the core:

Rate of sales now meets expectations and rentals are exceeding expectations ---> publisher predicts sales of the game will also exceed expectations

Alright, so we know people can rent the game for 2 days and we know it causes even the not so hardcore gamer to become preoccupied to the point where they have to complete it once they start it.

Answer choices:

A) Hmm that's nice. But how does this have anything to do with the publisher's prediction? Just because they can buy it straight from the publisher doesn't mean that more people are going to do so. Eliminate.

B) Not sure about this - keep it for now

C) Again, that's nice, but popularity doesn't always equal sales.

D) So they don't play it once they complete it - this has nothing to do with the prediction made by the publisher

E) This would weaken if anything since people could just borrow the games from friends instead of buying it

So back to B

B says it takes several weeks for most players to complete the game - if it takes several weeks and rentals are exceeding expectations and people HAVE to finish the game once they begin it, then maybe the publisher is on to something; two days isn't enough to finish the game, so after their rental time is up then it makes sense that those who rented the games would go out and buy them since they'd want to finish the game.

[ManhattanPrepLSAT1]

Nice explanation sumukh09!

[daijob]

Hi,
What does "the rate of sales now meets expectations" mean? Does it mean it reached the level of what people thought about the rate of sales?
I thought if this means sales (how much they sold) it already established the conclusion...there are more sales. But they want more? Isn't expectation is the "more"?
What will happen when it meets expectations? I'm sorry if my question does not make sense...I think I got confused by the words because I thought if it means meets expectations, it already passed the expectation

Thanks

[tommywallach]

Hmm. I'm not sure I totally understand, but if the question is does "meets" mean "exceeds," then the answer is no. You can meet expectations but not yet exceed them. You can also meet expectations and still DESIRE more sales. Expectations might have been set relatively low. I can expect to get a C on a paper, but still want a B. I can expect to get a C, want an A, and get a B. All of these are possible, if that makes sense.

-t