Q10 - The formation of hurricanes that threaten the United

[noah]

Let's begin this match the flaw question by understanding the original, flawed argument.

We're told that high winds trigger hurricanes (w --> h), and that when there's a lot of rain, we get a lot of hurricanes. The conclusion is an attempt to explain that sentence: it must be that lots of rain promotes wind to cause hurricanes.

So, what's the flaw? This is another case of a correlation/causation switcheroo. We know from the second sentence that rain and hurricanes are correlated, but we don't know whether one causes the other, and if so, which causes which. It could be that hurricanes cause rain. The first sentence makes this question more difficult but it is simply connecting hurricane and wind (w --> h), and when the two are mentioned in the conclusion, we don't need to think about their connection.

It's tougher to use conclusion and premise mismatches with this question, as most answers seem to pass. However, only (A) and (C) have the same sort of vague causation language that we see in the original argument. Regardless, you'd probably rely on linkage issues, looking for the matching flaw.

(A) can be eliminated because it introduces a new term--healthy--in the conclusion, which is unlike the original.

(B) is similar to (A). Where did "dangerous" come from?

(C) is correct. We have entrepreneurial success and sports correlated, and the conclusion is that sports causes entrepreneurial success, while the causation could be the reverse, or something (type A personality?) could cause both.

(D) has a reversal of logic, not a correlation/causation flaw.

(E) is tempting. However, the premise is a causation, just like the conclusion. While this argument is flawed--we have no idea how Eastern European events will affect Central America, we just know it will affect it somehow--it's flawed in a different way.

[WaltGrace1983]

I eliminated (A) and (B), in addition to the reasons you mentioned, because they give a conclusion that fails to assert causation. We want a correct answer to look something like:

A & B ⊢ A → B

Yet (A) and (B) look something like:

A & B ⊢ A & C

Is that correct?

[maryadkins]

Yes, looks good Walt!