When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, people

[acct4gmat]

Hello all,

This is a question from Manhattan GMAT 5th edition CR Guide.
When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, people tend to spend less
money on non-essential purchases. Therefore, the perceived threat of a future recession
decreases the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard
as optional or luxury goods.
Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?
(A People do not always agree as to which goods should be considered luxury
goods.
(B) People are more likely to have read a news periodical recently because more
and more periodicals are being published.
(C) Most people do not regularly read news periodicals.
(D) The consumer perception of the threat of recession increases when news
periodicals begin forecasting a recession.
(E) At least some of the biggest-spending consumers prior to the recession were
among those who curtailed their spending after the recession began.

Here as per the explanation the 1st sentence i.e., When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession... is premise whereas the second sentence is the conclusion .. Logically it seems reasonable but when I apply the "therefore" test ,for me reverse seemed better i.e.,
the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard as optional or luxury goods -> people tend to spend less money on non-essential purchases
that is the "willingness of people to purchase less should be followed by people spending less. whereas as per the explanation , spending less is followed by willingness to spend less .Please correct me where I am going wrong. Thanks a lot in advance.

[jnelson0612]

Hello all,

This is a question from Manhattan GMAT 5th edition CR Guide.
When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, people tend to spend less
money on non-essential purchases. Therefore, the perceived threat of a future recession
decreases the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard
as optional or luxury goods.
Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?
(A People do not always agree as to which goods should be considered luxury
goods.
(B) People are more likely to have read a news periodical recently because more
and more periodicals are being published.
(C) Most people do not regularly read news periodicals.
(D) The consumer perception of the threat of recession increases when news
periodicals begin forecasting a recession.
(E) At least some of the biggest-spending consumers prior to the recession were
among those who curtailed their spending after the recession began.

Here as per the explanation the 1st sentence i.e., When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession... is premise whereas the second sentence is the conclusion .. Logically it seems reasonable but when I apply the "therefore" test ,for me reverse seemed better i.e.,
the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard as optional or luxury goods -> people tend to spend less money on non-essential purchases
that is the "willingness of people to purchase less should be followed by people spending less. whereas as per the explanation , spending less is followed by willingness to spend less .Please correct me where I am going wrong. Thanks a lot in advance.

Sure! This is one in which you don't even have to apply the "therefore" test, because the problem itself supplies the "therefore". It states "Therefore, the perceived threat of a future recession decreases the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard as optional or luxury goods." The word "therefore" is usually a pretty strong signal that the conclusion is following.

I can see the case in which you could use either to support the other, so just rely on the word "therefore". It's there to signal the conclusion.

[Gia]

Hello all,

This is a question from Manhattan GMAT 5th edition CR Guide.
When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, people tend to spend less
money on non-essential purchases. Therefore, the perceived threat of a future recession
decreases the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard
as optional or luxury goods.
Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?
(A People do not always agree as to which goods should be considered luxury
goods.
(B) People are more likely to have read a news periodical recently because more
and more periodicals are being published.
(C) Most people do not regularly read news periodicals.
(D) The consumer perception of the threat of recession increases when news
periodicals begin forecasting a recession.
(E) At least some of the biggest-spending consumers prior to the recession were
among those who curtailed their spending after the recession began.

Here as per the explanation the 1st sentence i.e., When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession... is premise whereas the second sentence is the conclusion .. Logically it seems reasonable but when I apply the "therefore" test ,for me reverse seemed better i.e.,
the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard as optional or luxury goods -> people tend to spend less money on non-essential purchases
that is the "willingness of people to purchase less should be followed by people spending less. whereas as per the explanation , spending less is followed by willingness to spend less .Please correct me where I am going wrong. Thanks a lot in advance.

Sure! This is one in which you don't even have to apply the "therefore" test, because the problem itself supplies the "therefore". It states "Therefore, the perceived threat of a future recession decreases the willingness of people to purchase products that they regard as optional or luxury goods." The word "therefore" is usually a pretty strong signal that the conclusion is following.

I can see the case in which you could use either to support the other, so just rely on the word "therefore". It's there to signal the conclusion.

hi,
I have another problem with the explaination of this question in 5th Manhattan Critical Reasoning, P102.
Recall the argument:
--conclusion: "perceived future threat will decrease people's willingness to buy luxury goods"
--one of the brainstormied assumption: "people reading/hearing info from News Periodicals".

In "The Negation Technique" part, the negation of (B) chioce is (B) People are NOT more likely to have read a news periodical recently (and) more periodicals are NOT being published, which does not tear down the authors' conclusion because the number of periodicals being published is irrelevant to the argument. (at bottom of the page)

Here is my problem, I agree on the number of periodicals is irrelevant, but the main idea of (B)'s negation is People are NOT more likely to have read a news periodical recently but not the number of periodicals. And that people have less access to the periodicals does weaken the author's conclusion since it hurts the assumption above. People read periodical less so there are fewer chance get the news when peridicals do forecasting, so some people will not decrease luxury spending.

I chose (D) because its assumption is stronger than (B)... Is there any other better explaination to kill (B)? And is there anything I misunderstood?

Thanks a lot for help~

[RonPurewal]

the first sentence ("When news periodicals begin forecasting a recession, people tend to spend less money on non-essential purchases") already establishes the FACT that people react to the predictions in news periodicals.
therefore, the frequency/likelihood with which people read news periodicals (the substance of choice B) is irrelevant here, because we already KNOW that enough people are reading these things to produce the reaction described above.

what is NOT yet determined, though, is WHY people have this reaction.
that -- specifically, the connection in choice D -- is just being assumed.

[JbhB682]

I had trouble understanding what answers D and E meant...

Could you please explain what answer choices D and E are saying ...

[RonPurewal]

I had trouble understanding what answers D and E meant...

Could you please explain what answer choices D and E are saying ...

what's YOUR understanding of what those sentences mean?

(...and please don't say "I have no idea". You do understand some of the words, at least. Tell us the parts that you do understand and the parts that you don't / where it gets confusing. That will help us to figure out the best way to explain whatever is confusing.)