Alex,
It seems like you graduated around the last economic decline.
Is 2008 like 2001? When did the job market pick up during the last downturn?
Do you think FT students matriculating in Fall 2009 will have a tough time finding good job opportunities?
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- Guest
- MBAApply
I think I know where you're going with this -- that if I say the job market picked up in [x] years, you will extrapolate that it will also similarly take [x] years for this current downturn.
The fact is, the only thing that this downturn has in common with the other is that both are downturns. The root cause and the dynamics are very different. The post 9/11 suck was primarily a white collar downturn due to an equity market bubble bursting - it was a relatively short-lived bubble that began in the late 90s and ended in '01. The root cause for this current one is a credit market bubble bursting - which has primarily impacted homeowners and financial institutions, and is rooted in structural problems (i.e. regulatory issues). It has also impacted broader segments of the economy, but as to whether it will be sustained or not is still too early to say. How fast will regulatory reforms take place within the financial sector and how fast credit markets recover is anyone's guess. It's a scary time for many people right now. The biggest thing to look for is how retail sales hold up this Christmas, and how fast the credit markets adjust - if the credit markets continue to be difficult for another year or so, companies will definitely feel the pinch (which then leads to a further downward spiral).
So to answer your question - it's all conjecture, no one knows. Those who are optimistic that this will be a quick recovery will believe that the Class of 2011 will be okay, and those who feel we're in for another Japan (10 years of sluggish growth due to a credit market bubble bursting in the early 1990s) will believe that it's not going to be good for anyone for a while.
Anyhow, you can't control or predict when these things will recover. If you do, you should use your money to time the market rather than do an MBA because you'll do much better financially. At this point, for the Class of 2011 it's just as likely that things will be bad as they will be okay. No one really knows.
Alex Chu
alex@mbaapply.com
www.mbaapply.com
http://mbaapply.blogspot.com
The fact is, the only thing that this downturn has in common with the other is that both are downturns. The root cause and the dynamics are very different. The post 9/11 suck was primarily a white collar downturn due to an equity market bubble bursting - it was a relatively short-lived bubble that began in the late 90s and ended in '01. The root cause for this current one is a credit market bubble bursting - which has primarily impacted homeowners and financial institutions, and is rooted in structural problems (i.e. regulatory issues). It has also impacted broader segments of the economy, but as to whether it will be sustained or not is still too early to say. How fast will regulatory reforms take place within the financial sector and how fast credit markets recover is anyone's guess. It's a scary time for many people right now. The biggest thing to look for is how retail sales hold up this Christmas, and how fast the credit markets adjust - if the credit markets continue to be difficult for another year or so, companies will definitely feel the pinch (which then leads to a further downward spiral).
So to answer your question - it's all conjecture, no one knows. Those who are optimistic that this will be a quick recovery will believe that the Class of 2011 will be okay, and those who feel we're in for another Japan (10 years of sluggish growth due to a credit market bubble bursting in the early 1990s) will believe that it's not going to be good for anyone for a while.
Anyhow, you can't control or predict when these things will recover. If you do, you should use your money to time the market rather than do an MBA because you'll do much better financially. At this point, for the Class of 2011 it's just as likely that things will be bad as they will be okay. No one really knows.
Alex Chu
alex@mbaapply.com
www.mbaapply.com
http://mbaapply.blogspot.com
- Guest
current crisis
To throw in my 2 cents (that's all I have left after the market crash!), but the bubble in 2001 impacted the tech-sector, more than any other. It appears that no one sector will be impacted any more or less, than any other, in the current downturn.
- MBAApply
If you're focused purely on financial impact and jobs, then no it's probably not worth it.
But most people go back to b-school for much more than just "will I get a high paying job". Of course that's one of the reasons, but not the only important reason.
A lot of folks go back because they want and need a break from work. It's like a sabbatical. You clear your head for two years to focus on you. It's not just "get a job" but it's as much about personal/professional development as it is about anything else. Many people come out of it learning more about themselves and having a better handle on their priorities or even having a more attuned "self-knowledge" of what they are looking for in a career - what is it specifically that fulfills them. And that can be invaluable.
For example, there are plenty of engineers going back to b-school. A good number of them make good money already, and in some cases as good or even better than most post-MBA salaries. And they are well aware of that, and also well aware that they won't make much more (or sometimes even less) post-MBA. But they're going back because they want to get out of engineering. They want to move into a business career now. They don't want to be in engineering anymore. Of course a down economy makes it harder, but a lot of highly driven, highly ambitious people aren't the type to "wait around" in a holding pattern waiting for the right time. They just go after it when they personally feel they're ready, and deal with the difficult economy in stride.
Same for bankers or consultants. Many of them are highly driven and ambitious. They don't want to wait around or "time the economy" by sitting in some holding pattern of a life if they can go NOW, the economy be damned. It doesn't mean they're not scared or apprehensive about the difficulty of finding a job post-MBA, but many will still go anyway. Those jobs at the junior level burn you out, and you really have to get away from it after 2-3 years. These jobs are so all encompassing that you don't have time to really explore or discover other thing (let alone sleep if you're a banker, or sleep in your own bed as a consultant).
Same with the military officers. They get to a point in their careers (usually after 5 years) where they are faced with either positioning themselves to be "lifers" in the military, or to leave and become a civilian. It's a natural break for them - go back to school (b-school, law school, med school, etc.), get skills, become a civilian. Many aren't going to say "I'll serve another tour in Iraq and wait until the economy gets better". They will either go now, or probably stay in the military longer-term.
Are there folks who have the economy dictate their career choices? Sure. But by and large for many people their personal circumstances tend to dictate when to go to school.
Put it this way. If you live long enough, you'll see multiple economic cycles throughout your lifetime. This won't be your first (or last). Get used to it. You can't hide and wait every time something bad happens - you still have to do what you want to do, and take whatever economic realities in stride.
Alex Chu
alex@mbaapply.com
www.mbaapply.com
http://mbaapply.blogspot.com
But most people go back to b-school for much more than just "will I get a high paying job". Of course that's one of the reasons, but not the only important reason.
A lot of folks go back because they want and need a break from work. It's like a sabbatical. You clear your head for two years to focus on you. It's not just "get a job" but it's as much about personal/professional development as it is about anything else. Many people come out of it learning more about themselves and having a better handle on their priorities or even having a more attuned "self-knowledge" of what they are looking for in a career - what is it specifically that fulfills them. And that can be invaluable.
For example, there are plenty of engineers going back to b-school. A good number of them make good money already, and in some cases as good or even better than most post-MBA salaries. And they are well aware of that, and also well aware that they won't make much more (or sometimes even less) post-MBA. But they're going back because they want to get out of engineering. They want to move into a business career now. They don't want to be in engineering anymore. Of course a down economy makes it harder, but a lot of highly driven, highly ambitious people aren't the type to "wait around" in a holding pattern waiting for the right time. They just go after it when they personally feel they're ready, and deal with the difficult economy in stride.
Same for bankers or consultants. Many of them are highly driven and ambitious. They don't want to wait around or "time the economy" by sitting in some holding pattern of a life if they can go NOW, the economy be damned. It doesn't mean they're not scared or apprehensive about the difficulty of finding a job post-MBA, but many will still go anyway. Those jobs at the junior level burn you out, and you really have to get away from it after 2-3 years. These jobs are so all encompassing that you don't have time to really explore or discover other thing (let alone sleep if you're a banker, or sleep in your own bed as a consultant).
Same with the military officers. They get to a point in their careers (usually after 5 years) where they are faced with either positioning themselves to be "lifers" in the military, or to leave and become a civilian. It's a natural break for them - go back to school (b-school, law school, med school, etc.), get skills, become a civilian. Many aren't going to say "I'll serve another tour in Iraq and wait until the economy gets better". They will either go now, or probably stay in the military longer-term.
Are there folks who have the economy dictate their career choices? Sure. But by and large for many people their personal circumstances tend to dictate when to go to school.
Put it this way. If you live long enough, you'll see multiple economic cycles throughout your lifetime. This won't be your first (or last). Get used to it. You can't hide and wait every time something bad happens - you still have to do what you want to do, and take whatever economic realities in stride.
Alex Chu
alex@mbaapply.com
www.mbaapply.com
http://mbaapply.blogspot.com
7 posts Page 1 of 1