After teaching a few foreign language students, I am convinced that this is a question where it makes sense to point out that the official guide has very little to do with actual American English. And can be very inconsistent.
Looking at the sentence, we need an answer choice that is parallel around the conjunction and.
So unearthed in needs to be parallel to estimated __ followed by the correct answer choice. Ideally the correct answer choice would have a preposition after estimated.
GMAC's answer estimated to be uses an infinitive verb instead of a preposition preventing this structure from being perfectly parallel.
In the official explanation the author of the answer explains that estimated at could only be used if something was estimated at a location. For example in the sentence, John estimated the impact of the earthquake at the epicenter.
While I agree with GMAC that estimated at could be used in this form. I disagree with the point of view that this is the only correct use of it.
Estimated at is an idiom in use in professional capacity throughout the United States. Someone pointed out that an actual GMAT question uses estimated at in the portion of the sentence that is not underlined:
http://www.beatthegmat.com/sc-with-surf ... 43734.htmlFurther HBR articles frequently contain the idiom estimated at. One example, a top result in google, can be found here:
http://books.google.com/books?id=2QOlPM ... at&f=falseGiven the lack of parallelism in this answer and the fact that the idiom estimated at is in common usage, I think it is important to keep in mind that GMAC is not always correct outside of GMAT world.
The test works by comparing students answer to those of people who have advanced degrees (typically master's degrees) in the subject that is being tested, who work as item writers in the same industry. If those people choose "estimated to be" over "estimated at" then that become the "correct" answer.
The problem is that what is perceived as an American idiom "estimated to be" may be an idiom that only in colloquial use within the test construction industry. Just as other professions have their own jargon, so to does the test construction industry.
What it boils down to is this, sometimes GMAC is wrong. For a learner of English as a foreign language, they really have to accept that it may not be possible to even understand all GMAT questions after reading the explanations because the explanations are not necessarily written by someone who would have the same expertise as a writer of a dictionary.
In these cases, it is best to just accept that this is an approximate exam, not a perfect exam, and to move on.