CR, nice question

[thanghnvn]

- this is from gmatprep paper, a beautifull question because choice B is presented. pls, explain why B is wrong?

Manufacturers of mechanical pencils make most of the profit on pencil leads rather than on the pencils themselves. The Write Company, which cannot sell its leads as cheaply as other manufacturers can, plans to alter the design of its mechanical pencil so that it will accept only a new designed Write Company lead, which will be sold at the same price as the Write Company's current lead.

Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the Write Company's projection that its plan will lead to an increase in its sales of pencil leads?


(A) First-time buyers of mechanical pencils tend to buy the least expensive mechanical pencils available.

(B) Annual sales of mechanical pencils are expected to triple over the next five years.

(C) A Write Company executive is studyiing ways to reduce the cost of manufacturing pencil leads.

(D) A rival manufacturer recently announced similar plans to introduce a mechanical pencil that would accept only the leads produced by that manufacturer.

(E) In extensive test marketing, mechanical-pencil users found the new Write Company pencil markedly superior to other mechanical pencils they had used.

[nadkarni.sujay]

I would go with E because that is the best answer.

B: Annual sales of mechanical pencils are expected to triple over the next five years. - Does this mean that the sales of mechanical pencils produced by Write Company will increase? No.

[jlucero]

I'll agree with everything that nadkarni says, and take it one step further. Remember that we are trying to increase the number of leads sold by Write Company. None of the other options give a reason why someone would buy a more expensive lead, except E- you have to buy their lead!

a) doesn't say whether Write Company has the cheapest pencils
b) doesn't suggest Write Company will get a share of the increase in mechanical pencils (why would someone buy a pencil with weird lead)
c) the best laid plans of mice and executives...
d) other people are doing it doesn't mean it will be successful
e) we have the best pencils, if people buy the best pencils, they'll be stuck having to buy the leads that go along with them

[thanghnvn]

strengthener increases the belief that the conclusion will happen and both B and E do this job already.

however, B increases the chance that the conclusion will happen disregarding the evidence. E increases the chance that the evidence create the conclusion and so is correct.

the correct answer in strengthen question increases the belief that the evidence create the conclusion. The answer choice which increases the belief that the conclusion will happen independently from evidence is not correct.

is my thinking correct? pls, comment. this is og question and we have to learn the thinking of gmac.

[jlucero]

As I mentioned above, B doesn't increase the likelihood that the company will have an increase in pencil leads. Over the next ten years people might be expected to buy more computers. Yet there's no reason to expect that people will buy my computers (or my computer software) unless I give them a good reason to do so (it's better than other companies).

[thanghnvn]

it seems that choice B is typical wrong answer and should be learned.

B can be considered " not strong enough" to be the correct answer.

but my thinking is that

B also increases the belief that the conclusion will happen but happen disregarding the evidence.

E increase the belief that under the light of evicence, the conclusion will happen.


both B and E increase that the conclusion will happen. However, E is correct because it increase the belief that the evidence cause the conclusion.

B not certainly cause the conclusion to happen. But B aready dose increase the belief that conclusion happen. It is quite possible that the revenue of a company will increase if the overal market is good.


we have to understand choice B christally clearly.

pls explain.

[jlucero]

thanghnvn, I disagree that B "increases the belief that the conclusion will happen." Just because there will be an increase in the annual sales of mechanical pencils doesn't guarantee that our sales of pencil leads will increase. And furthermore, if our pencil leads are more expensive than other brands' leads, there doesn't seem like a good reason for people to buy our pencils in the first place.

[WaleedL464]

What is the conclusion in this question? I think this question just states a set of facts. Am i right or wrong? if i am wrong please tell me the conclusion in the question.

[Sage Pearce-Higgins]

The conclusion (the main claim of the argument) is here stated in the question stem. You're right that the text given simply consists of some information about the company and it's plans. However, the question asks us for something that 'supports the Write Company's projection that its plan will lead to an increase in its sales of pencil leads'. Here's the conclusion that the correct answer choice needs to strengthen.