According to the Tristate Transportation Authority, making

[RonPurewal]

Hi Ron,

But choice D states that, the commuters avoided the bridge when the tolls were increased PREVIOUSLY. What is the likelihood that the same will happen when the tolls are increased now? Why should we assume that the increase in toll will result in the same outcome as before? Kindly clarify.

Thanks,
Madhu

This is nothing short of the basis for all scientific thinking, ever, in the whole world. (If most heavy smokers from the 1970s and 1980s developed lung cancer, should today's heavy smokers shrug that result off as irrelevant?)

Remember that "cast doubt" doesn't mean "disprove" or "destroy" -- it just means exactly what it says, "cast doubt".
You're right about the possibility that mass behavior could be different this time, but, think about this situation from a real-world perspective and it will be clear what is more probable.

[lindaliu9273]

Hi instructors,

I also choose C. After eliminating A & E, I hesitated among the other 3 choices. Because they all decrease the income of the plan, I think they all weaken the effectiness of the plan in a way. And as Ron said ""cast doubt" doesn't mean "disprove" or "destroy"",

B: you have to pay something for the plan, increase costs and decrease income.

C:hoarding tokens decreases the revenue of the plan compared to not hoarding tokens.

D:some of the drivers might switch route. This decrease income of the plan.

But I finally eliminate the D because I think comparision between the plan in the past and the plan now might not be good.

I notice that I have chosen c for the 2nd time, so something in my logic must be very incorrect and stubborn. I'll be appreciate if someine can help.

[RonPurewal]

Choice D points to the likelihood that revenue will decrease.

Under choice C, no such decrease is possible.
People are going to pay all the tolls they would have paid anyway"”"”and they're going to pay them earlier!

In simple terms:

Choice C:
"- Same tolls paid, this time earlier...
- Then, eventually, higher tolls paid.

Choice D:
"- Fewer tolls might be paid.

D is what you want.

[WEIMINC885]

Hi, Ron. I still have problems about Choice C and D.

The sitmulus says" The authority plans to finance these improvements over the course of five years..."

Choice C mentions "postpone the effects of the incresae"----I think if the plan is carried out after five years( or it can be carried out later and the funding will not be collected within five years), then the choice is weakening the plan.

Choice D mentions "almost 20% of the regular commuter traffic..."----I think there are still 80% of the regular commuter who will still choose the route and 80% is not a small proportion, if the authority waits, the authority will get enough money enventually.

Could you please address the problems？？ Thank you very much！

[Sage Pearce-Higgins]

The sitmulus says" The authority plans to finance these improvements over the course of five years..."

Choice C mentions "postpone the effects of the incresae"----I think if the plan is carried out after five years( or it can be carried out later and the funding will not be collected within five years), then the choice is weakening the plan.

Be careful how you interpret these statements! The finance will be "over the course of five years", but the improvements will be sooner than that. Sure, I agree with you that if some commuters buy extra tokens at the lower price, then this could affect the amount of money collected. However, in answer C, "buy more tokens than usual" is a bit imprecise. I can't imagine many commuters buying 5 years' worth of tokens in advance! It's a pretty extreme scenario. And even if this did happen, there would be quite simple ways to stop it, such as limiting the number of tokens people could buy in one go. This all sounds like the kind of repeated "what if...?" logic that can waste you time on CR. We're only asked to find the answer choice that would "cast the most doubt" and we have to be common sense about it.

Choice D mentions "almost 20% of the regular commuter traffic..."----I think there are still 80% of the regular commuter who will still choose the route and 80% is not a small proportion, if the authority waits, the authority will get enough money enventually.

First of all, we're told that this route "has since been improved", so we would expect that more than 20% of people would change their route to avoid the toll bridge. A 20% or greater drop in revenue would definitely make a dent on profits. Furthermore, the greater the rise in the toll, the greater the percentage of drivers we would expect to switch route. This is a much more significant problem than answer C.

You'll probably feel a bit frustrated when you read this explanation - I've seen lots of students struggle with GMAT CR thinking, and I found it tough to begin with. You need to be critical and precise in your thoughts, but also need to be moderate and reasonable. Finding that balance is part of the training for this test.