Q20

[b91302310]

I had a hard time making decision between A and E. It is obvious that we can refer to line 16 to 19 to answer this one, but there are reasons for both A and E to be possible correct and incorrect.

For A, a pollster use the sample of voter preferences to pridict the outcome of a election. In terms of the traditional investigators mentioned in paragraph 3, it is true that a pollster predicts the behavior of a large interactive system (i.e. the outcome of election) by analyzing its component mechanism individually. (by analyzing the sample of voter preferences)

So, is A wrong because a pollster does not analyze "every" voter's preferece so a pollster fails to analyze its component mechanism individually ?

For E, I could see that this answer matches the theory of tranditional investigator. However, I think that to draw a conclusion of the structural soundness of the bridge is not much like to make a prediction. (So, that's the reason why I put A)

Could any one explain it?

Thanks.

[ManhattanPrepLSAT1]

You correctly identified the issue with answer choice (A). We're looking for a method of analysis that looks at the constituent elements of something and then draws a conclusion about the whole to which those members belong. Classic "parts to whole" fallacy.

Answer choice (A) does not commit that flaw. Instead answer choice (A) offers a method of analysis that would be considered sound on the LSAT. Unless there were any reason to question the representativeness of the survey results. But no reason to question the representativeness of the survey is offered.

Answer choice (E) does gives us the classic "parts to whole" fallacy. Keep in mind that often conclusions take one of the following forms: prediction, recommendation, hypothesis, or decision. So in a way, drawing a conclusion and making a prediction are the same thing! Too bad you saw these as necessarily different. Otherwise, I think you had this one!

Good luck...

[gplaya123]

What's wrong with d...

[olaizola.mariana]

I think (D) is wrong because the biologist is observing only ONE species of insect, rather than each of the species separately and then making a claim about the class as a whole.